12/2 Dovish Signs
Mortgage Rates Near 3-Month Low, US Stocks Noth Their Best Month Of The Year in November, Inventory Begins To Decrease
This newsletter is 524 words and should take about 5 minutes to read.
Read last week’s newsletter here "11/25 Slowdown"
Henry Kissinger died the same day Spotify wrapped dropped. Forbes released a “Hall of Shame” 30 under 30 (Sam Bankman Fried took the top spot). Mark Cuban quits Shark Tank and sells a majority of the Dallas Mavericks. Elon Musk dropped the F-bomb during a conference. Black Friday marked the busiest travel day in U.S. airport history with 2,894,304 TSA security screenings for 51,332 flights. And a Connecticut woman claims she found a finger in her “Chopt” salad (Salad & Go inside job?)
tl;dr
The Market continues to favor buyers.
The S&P housing index had Phoenix appreciation clocked in at .54% from July-September
The average mortgage rate is 7.09%
Resale home sales have hit a 20 year old
Phoenix
After 20 straight weeks of Phoenix’s inventory increasing, this past week was the first decline we’ve seen since early July. This is typical for Thanksgiving weekend as sellers postpone listing their homes until after the holiday weekend.
The latest S&P Home Price Index numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period July to September 2023. This means the typical home sale closed in mid August, more than 3 months ago.
Phoenix did rank within the top 5 cities in the US.
Detroit +0.68%
New York +0.62%
Las Vegas +0.60%
Miami +0.59%
Phoenix +0.54%
The Cromford Market Index is a gauge of Phoenix’s Supply and demand metrics. 100 is considered a balanced market. Anything higher than the 100-point benchmark is considered a seller’s market. Anything below 100 is considered a buyer’s market.
As of December 1st, 2023, the CMI has decreased to 105.4. Down 2.9 points from 7 days ago.
Supply has increased by 9 basis points and demand has decreased by 3 basis points.
Rates
Measure of mortgage loan application volume increased 0.3% from one week earlier.
The Refinance Index decreased 9% from the previous week and was 1% higher than the same week one year ago.
The Purchase Index decreased 31% compared with the previous week and was 19% lower than the same week one year ago.
7-Day rate change: -23 basis points
YoY change: +75 basis points
Average interest rate: 7.09%
Mortgage apps have had their 4th straight week increase. However, still remain at a 18- year low.
Two-decade slump
Last month, mortgage rates were at their highest of 2023 and contract signings for existing homes were at their lowest in more than 20 years. Recent weeks decline in mortgage rates will help qualify more home buyers, but limited housing inventory is significantly preventing housing demand from fully being satisfied. Multiple offers are still a thing for homes that are priced correctly.
I’ve said before, the days of sticking a “For Sale” sign outside your house and receiving 2 dozen offers is gone.
S&p500 vibe check
The S&P 500 rose more than 8in November
The Nasdaq was up about 10%, marking their best month since July 2022
Meme, tweet, & fact of the week
The first president to ride in an airplane was Franklin Roosevelt.