This newsletter is 669 words and should take about 5 minutes to read.
Read last week’s newsletter here → "1/27 In The Bag"
Tim Apple announced Apple AI later this year and the new Apple Vision Pros dropped Friday. Jerome Powell said a March rate cut is not likely. Peter Thiel announced he a funding a competitor of the Olympics where athletes may use PEDs. Congress grilled 5 social media giant CEOs . Meta stock is ripping. Nueralink has installed its first chip in a human brain. South Korean citizens are being hospitalized after eating fired toothpicks. Taylor Swift is being accused of being a PsyOp. And Joe Rogan has re-signed a $250m Spotify deal.
tl;dr
The median sales in Phoenix price decreased .3% from September to November.
The average mortgage rate is 6.92%
The Fed kept rates steady this last meeting and signaled no cut in March
Phoenix
The S&P Home Price Index numbers were published this Tuesday this past week.
The new report covers home sales during the period from September to November 2023. We have 7 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a lower index for Phoenix for the first time in 9 months. 13 cities declined over the last month with Seattle the most affected.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes. Only 11/20 are listed.
Miami +0.3%
Cleveland +0.3%
New York +0.3%
Charlotte +0.2%
Las Vegas +0.2%
Tampa +0.1%
Los Angeles +0.1%
Atlanta 0.0%
Boston -0.2%
Washington -0.3%
Phoenix -0.3%
Phoenix has dropped from 2nd to 11th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was -0.18%, so Phoenix fell just below that standard.
The momentum we experienced after the new year is beginning to fade. Inventory has risen for the first time in 3 weeks and demand is beginning to slow.
I have noticed many more For Sale By Owners hitting the market. Along with that, Phoenix’s month’s inventory has gone from 3.1 to 3.5. In my opinion, this piece of data is the best to indicate the health and trajectory of a market.
The Cromford Market Index is a gauge of Phoenix’s Supply and demand metrics. 100 is considered a balanced market. Anything higher than the 100-point benchmark is considered a seller’s market. Anything below 100 is considered a buyer’s market.
As of February 2nd, 2024, the CMI has increased to 117.5. Up 6 basis points from 7 days ago.
Supply has increased by 9 basis points and demand has increased by 1.5 points.
Rates
7-Day rate change: + basis points
YoY change: +61 basis points
Average interest rate: 6.92%
What cut
Late 2023, a lot of optimism was floating around in hopes there will be 4 rate cuts by the end of 2024. However, J Powell signaled what could be otherwise in the FOMC this week.
He said that the central bank would likely not be comfortable enough with the path of inflation by its next meeting in March to cut interest rates.
“Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that. But that’s to be seen” Papa Powell said
The statement came in a news conference after the Fed’s January meeting, where the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Stocks dipped to their session lows as the Fed chief dashed hopes of traders who want the central bank to slash rates sooner, before there’s a recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 300 points at one point.
S&p500 vibe check
US stocks rose, recovering from yesterday’s brutal sell-off in reaction to the Fed’s rate decisions, while investors awaited big tech earnings
The Nasdaq led indices with a 1.3% gain
Meme, tweet, & fact of the week
“Typewriter" is the longest word that can be made using the keys on only one row of the keyboard.