This newsletter is 669 words and should take about 5 minutes to read.
Read last week’s newsletter here →"2/3 Priced In"
DoorDash is expanding overseas. Nvidia is now worth more than the entire Chinese stock exchange. Snap’s stock tanked after earnings (again), and tech layoffs keep coming. Wall Street is ditching China for India. Apple’s Vision Pro is the hottest new consumer tech item on the market. The end of football is near. And the rowdiest golf tournament is underway.
tl;dr
4/17 Phoenix submarkets have declined
The average mortgage rate is 6.98%
This is going to be a short one! I have friends visiting for the Waste Management Open so we are enjoying
Phoenix
The market is getting more diverse with some segments slowing down while other are improving for sellers. We still have 13 cities showing an increase in their Cromford index over the past month, but 4 have deteriorated and several more are starting to decline. Scottsdale and Surprise have joined Fountain Hills and Goodyear in posting s decline in the last month. Also falling in the last week are Buckeye, Maricopa and Paradise Valley.
There has been an average increase of 8.1% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, down from the 10.5% we recorded last week. We are still seeing a positive change over the month but the trend is slowing and this is not what sellers want to see at this time of year. Supply is growing in the more expensive locations and also in several of the cheapest and most distant areas from Central Phoenix. Paradise Valley has over 200 active listings without a contract for the first time since 2020. Cave Creek has bounced back after a worrying spell well below 100 but is also seeing inventory starting to grow.
Once again doing well over the last month are mid-range areas that are not too far from the center of the valley. These include Glendale, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert and Peoria, as well as Phoenix itself. These markets are looking healthy in terms of supply versus demand, although transaction volume remains poor.
The Cromford Market Index is a gauge of Phoenix’s Supply and demand metrics. 100 is considered a balanced market. Anything higher than the 100-point benchmark is considered a seller’s market. Anything below 100 is considered a buyer’s market.
As of February 9th, 2024, the CMI has increased to 117.5. Unchanged from 7 days ago.
Supply has increased by 1.2 points and demand has increased by 1.3 points.
Rates
7-Day rate change: +6 basis points
YoY change: +52 basis points
Average interest rate: 6.99%
S&p500 vibe check
Meme, tweet, & fact of the week
The 1912 Olympics was the last time that gold medals were actually solid gold. Since then, they are silver medals with a gold plating.